Why this matters
Chronic absenteeism — missing 10%+ of school days — is the single strongest predictor of dropout risk and low achievement. Unlike suspensions (which affect a few students deeply), chronic absence is a diffuse problem affecting 1 in 4 US students post-pandemic. A steady multi-year decline signals strong family engagement; a flat line near the US average is the new normal but still a concern.
What we're seeing
At Merced County Special Education, chronic absenteeism has risen 8721% over the 5-year window — from 0.6% in 2017 to 49.4% in 2024. The gap vs US average of ~28% has narrowed — from 27.4% above in 2017 to 21.4% above in 2024.